MANITOBA

Measuring Progress

Transparent Reporting on Government's Progress

Lower Manitoba’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions

21.8 Mt CO2

Target: In its Carbon Savings Account (CSA), Manitoba set a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goal of no less than 1 Mt of CO2e cumulative reductions for the period 2018-2022.

How we are doing now

Manitoba’s provincial GHG emissions reduction goal for the January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2022 period is 1 megatonne of carbon dioxide equivalent relative to a forecast of the total greenhouse gas emissions that would have occurred in that period.

Actions to reduce GHG emissions have been identified in the Made-in-Manitoba Climate and Green Plan and in The Climate and Green Plan Act. On June 11, 2019, based on the recommendations of the Expert Advisory Council, the Government of Manitoba established a cumulative GHG emissions reduction goal of 1 megatonne (Mt) for the 2018 to 2022 carbon savings account (CSA) period.

The CSA is Manitoba’s approach to setting, tracking, and reporting GHG emission reductions. Key features that distinguish the CSA approach of setting reduction targets are:

  • shorter five-year GHG emission reduction goals, rather than temporarily distant targets (e.g., 2030 or 2050), to ensure governments are accountable to achieve the target it sets
  • measuring cumulative GHG emission reductions, rather than GHG emission reductions in a single year to more effectively address the ‘stockpiling’ of CO2e in the atmosphere overtime
  • a debit feature requires any emission reductions shortfall at the end of a CSA period to be made up in the following CSA period.

The Manitoba government has taken action to reduce emissions and achieve the reduction goal, including but not limited to:

  • Early shut down of the province’s last coal-fired electricity generation unit in August 2018.
  • Established an efficient trucking program launched in March 2020, with $11.7 million provincial-federal support for incentives for fuel-saving devices and retrofitting of heavy-duty freight trucks.
  • Establishing Efficiency Manitoba, and under The Efficiency Manitoba Act, must achieve set energy savings targets. In 2019, Efficiency Manitoba filed its proposed 2020/23 efficiency plan, forecasting to achieve an annual average of 1.51% electricity savings and 0.78% natural gas savings over the 2020 to 2023 period. The energy efficiency initiatives expected launched date was April 1, 2020.

Manitoba is assessing the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic, especially on its CSA. It is anticipated that the target emission reductions of the CSA initiatives might be impacted. This can be due to the delay in regulation (i.e. biofuel mandates), lower uptakes of the program or program funding availability. Also, it was recently announced that a flat $25-per-tonne Green Levy which could help in the provincial emission reduction will be deferred due to COVID-19.

The 2020 Manitoba GHG emission will be available in the 2022 National Inventory Report.

Data Source

Annual GHG emissions from the province of Manitoba (all sources of emissions) are measured, tracked and reported by Environment and Climate Change Canada in its National Inventory Report. Environment and Climate Change Canada maintains and reports GHG emissions annually according to internationally-agreed accounting rules. The information includes historic annual emissions for Canada and each province and territory. The data is published two years following the year of emissions (e.g. we will not know Manitoba’s 2019 emissions until April 2021).

GHG emission reductions will be measured against a forecast of GHG emissions that could have occurred in that period if no additional action was taken (i.e. provincial GHG emissions under a counterfactual scenario, where no new measures are introduced). Emission forecasts are established by Environment and Climate Change Canada and expert modelling organizations.

How we are doing over time

Manitoba’s GHG emissions in 2017 totaled 20.8 Mt CO2e. ECCC makes annual adjustments to its NIR under Canada’s international reporting requirements to the UN. This is common practice for the federal government to ensure accurate information is submitted and in accordance with international reporting requirements. It is our understanding that in 2020 MB`s natural gas consumption estimates were adjusted downward by ECCC based on new energy use data received from Statistics Canada.  As a result MB’s 2017 emissions were adjusted from 21.7 Mt (as reported in the 2019 NIR) to 20.8 Mt (as reported in the 2020 NIR).

Manitoba’s GHG emissions in 2018 as currently published in the 2020 National Inventory Report totaled 21.8 Mt CO2e. This may be subject to adjustments in the 2021 National Inventory Report.

The figure below shows the historical Manitoba GHG emissions and forecasts of emissions based on current actions on climate change as well as economic and population growth forecasts.

Historical Manitoba GHG Emmissions and GHG Emissions Forecast

These forecasts are ECC's 2018 Reference Case and 2018 Additional Measures projections. Other forecasts exist for the province.

Why This Matters

The Climate and Green Plan vision is for Manitoba to become the cleanest, greenest and most climate resilient province. The plan includes commitment to reduce emissions and transition to a lower carbon economy.

The Climate and Green Plan Act requires the province to set an emissions reduction goal for 2018 to 2022, based on the advice of Expert Advisory Council, which the province completed in June 2019. Manitoba is the first jurisdiction in North America to establish an economy-wide carbon savings account. The establishment of the 2018 to 2022 emission reduction goal demonstrates Manitoba’s commitment to the Made-in-Manitoba Climate and Green Plan and to act in the immediate term to address climate change and transition to a low carbon economy. By transparently reporting progress to targets and by continuing to set five-year emission reduction goals that explicitly build from the previous carbon savings account, Manitoba is committing to bend the emissions curve down in a meaningful, practical and measurable way and ensuring that the Government of Manitoba is accountable for the outcomes of today and into the future.

Next steps

With the establishment of the GHG emissions reduction goal, the Government of Manitoba will establish and maintain a carbon savings account for 2018 to 2022 that tracks and reports emission reductions achieved in relation to the goal. The requirement to track and report progress is established in legislation under The Climate and Green Plan Act. Provincial emissions are reported by environment and Climate Change Canada in their National Inventory Report, where data for a given year is published by April 15 two years following the calendar year of emissions.

Manitoba will continue to monitor and assess the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the CSA and its annual GHG emissions, and will submit update once the information is available.

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